Economic Analysis & Modelling Archive

Estimating the effect of crime (maps) on house prices using a natural experiment


Dr. Monsuru Adepeju (PERU) worked alongside Dr. Meng Le Zhang of University of Sheffield to investigate the impact of public crime information on house prices in England and Wales, leveraging the geomasking in online crime maps as a natural experiment.

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Meeting Scotland’s child poverty reduction targets


This project looks at the relative effectiveness of childcare, employability programmes and social security levers in achieving the child poverty reduction targets

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Housing costs and child poverty


This project utilise the IPPR tax-benefit model to model the effects, at a household level, of changes to housing policy, accounting for the complexities in the benefit system.

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Exploring the frontiers of microsimulation


Tax-benefit microsimulation modelling is a well-established technique used in many countries around the world for estimating the fiscal, distributional and poverty effects of policy change in the tax and benefit system

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Providing advice on building a dynamic microsimulation modelling for non-communicable diseases


The Health Foundation REAL Centre is working with the University of Liverpool to build a dynamic microsimulation model of non-communicable diseases to allow analysis of future demand for healthcare.

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Assessing the impact on poverty of changes to the Local Housing Allowance


This will provide the first definitive view of the impact that the changes to the Local Housing Allowance over the past decade have had on poverty

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Work incentives in the tax and benefit system


This project will identify where, and why, work incentives remain poor for so many people by conducting a comprehensive study of work incentives throughout the tax and benefit system

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Social Impact Bonds 2.0: exploring the future of SIBs


To achieve their potential SIBs must be re-configured to become a catalyst for innovation, driving public sector reform and addressing new social and economic needs in the post-Covid world.

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Modelling the effects of the tax and benefit system


PERU maintains and develops the Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR) Tax-Benefit Model, which is a tax-benefit microsimulation model used by the IPPR, Resolution Foundation, Joseph Rowntree Foundation, New Economics Foundation, and Legatum Institute.

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Modelling the economic impacts of a Citizen’s Basic Income in Scotland


The aim of this project was to estimate the economic impacts if a Citizen’s Basic Income were implemented throughout Scotland.

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Supporting Wigan Payment by Results (PbR) Substance Misuse pilot


PERU worked with Wigan Drug and Alcohol Action Team (DAAT) between July 2011 and March 2012 to support the development of a tariff system for the Wigan PbR model.

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The costs and benefits of engaging volunteers from under-represented groups


Gaining a greater understanding of the costs and benefits of engaging volunteers from under-represented groups in the work of voluntary sector organisations through a survey and face-to-face interviews.

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An economic review of domestic violence services in Cheshire


PERU undertook a short review of the evidence on the impact of domestic violence services, collected data on the economic cost of delivering the particular service under review and calculated the break-even point for the service to be cost effective.

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An economic appraisal of the long-term costs and benefits of Young Carers services


Assessing the economic cost of delivering services to young carers and the potential benefits that might accrue to the tax payer and wider society from successful interventions.

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Estimating the effect of crime (maps) on house prices using a natural experiment


This project leverages features associated with the geomasking algorithm to estimate the effect of public crime statistics on house prices.

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Doing Gig Work – Illustrated Material Published


Publication aims to raise awareness about the platform-based gig economy

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Are Social Impact Bonds an Innovation in Finance or Do They Help Finance Social Innovation?


Using data from the Social Finance UK Database and focusing on SIBs in the US and UK, Olson et al. evaluate whether the SIB approach aligns with the theoretical predictions of social innovation.

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Public Service Motivation? Rethinking What Motivates Public Actors


Chris O’Leary looks afresh at the reasons for prosocial work choices in the first substantive critique of Public Service Motivation (PSM).

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Theme: Social Innovation in Public Services – Innovating ‘Co-Creative’ Relationships Between Services, Citizens and Communities?


The authors report and analyse innovative co-creative initiatives involving marginalized and stigmatized groups (prisoners, urban racialized minorities, rural poor populations including Roma).

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Book Review: Local Social Innovation to Combat Poverty and Exclusion: A Critical Appraisal


This book review by Sue Baines provides an insight into the value that Oosterlynck, Novy and Kazepov's book brings to the field of social innovation.

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New book on Contemporary Inequalities and the Life Course


This book draws upon perspectives from across the globe, employing an interdisciplinary life course approach.

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Social Innovation and Co-creation in Smallscale Renewable Energy: an Asset-based Approach


This paper makes a novel contribution by turning an ‘asset’ lens onto social and technical innovation in the context of the small-scale generation of renewable energy.

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Co-Creating Rehabilitation: Findings From a Pilot and Implications for Wider Public Service Reform


As part of a large pan-European project on co-creating public services we supported the design of a programme in England that attempted to operationalise research on desistance, through a model of co-created, strengths-based working. We then evaluated its implementation and impact.

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‘Good stories get lost in bureaucracy!’


Cultural biases and information for co-production

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A New Agenda for Co-Creating Public Services


This paper draws together key findings from CoSIE with a particular focus on what these imply for new policy and practice in public services in the form of a discussion paper aimed at European, national and regional policy-makers.

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Making Sense of Information and Evidence for Co-Creation


A blog for the H2020 project CoSIE, reflecting on ways to navigate tensions between differing views on good information and reliable evidence.

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Social Impact Bonds 2.0? Findings from a Study of Four UK SIBs


How Social Impact Bonds can facilitate a move to strengths-based service delivery and help drive innovation in public service delivery

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Implementing Innovative Social Investment: Strategic Lessons from Europe


This edited collection brings regional and local realities to the forefront of social investment debates by showcasing successes, challenges and setbacks of Social Investment policies and services from ten European countries.

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Commissioning and social determinants: evidence and opportunities


This chapter argues that local authorities can and should use their purchasing power strategically to address the social determinants of health that affect their local area.

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The progress of marketisation: the prison and probation experience


Rapid Evidence Assessment finds a growing body of evidence that lower probation caseloads have a positive impact in terms of reducing reoffending in the USA.

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Modelling the Economic Impact of a Citizen’s Basic Income in Scotland


A report, co-authored by researchers from the Fraser of Allander Institute, Manchester Metropolitan University and IPPR Scotland, looks at the costs and benefits of implementing a basic income in Scotland and the channels through which it may impact upon the economy.

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Towards a Theoretical Framework for Social Impact Bonds


Governments in some of the world’s richest nations appear to be caught in a double challenge of declining social budgets even as social needs are increasing.

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Innovation and the Evidence Base


This report explores the concept of innovation and its application to the delivery of probation services.

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Putting the community back into payback


This chapter explores how to put communities back into community payback through the use of co-operatives.

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Transforming Research and Policy


A Handbook to Connect Research with Policy Making

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Co-creation of Public Service Innovation


Drawing together ideas about co-creation, social innovation, social investment and individual and collective values that underpin the CoSIE project.

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Implementing Innovative Social Investment


Available Open Access under CC-BY-NC licence. The turn towards a Social Investment approach to welfare implies deploying resources to enhance human capital and mobilise the productive potential of citizens, starting in early childhood.

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Social Impact Bonds: More Than One Approach


A look at how social impact bonds differ between projects and geographies, and how those differences impact practical implementation.

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Innovation and Social Investment Programs in Europe


There is a lack of empirical research around sub‐national Social Investment programs, and a lack of connectivity with social innovation.

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How Could Brexit Affect Poverty in the UK?


This briefing analyses Brexit’s potential impact on families in poverty, along with other forces that could help or hinder efforts to solve UK poverty.

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The Economic Inefficiency of Student Fees and Loans


In this report, published by the Intergenerational Foundation, Kevin argues that the benefits of a young person getting a higher education qualification in England accrue in the ratio 58% to the nation and 42% to the graduate.

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Globalisation and sticky prices: ‘con’ or conundrum


With reference to a case study which illustrates the existence of segmented markets and international price discrimination, this paper develops a theoretical model of comparative advantage in which domestic prices may be sticky.

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The Impact of Weather and Climate on Tourist Demand: The case of Chester Zoo


Warmer, drier summer weather brought by global climate change should encourage use of outdoor leisure facilities.

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Markets, privatisation and law and order – some economic considerations


Kevin Albertson discusses the difficulty of aligning private incentives with the public good

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How to Run the Country Manual


The step-by-step guide to running Great Britain

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The role of social innovation in criminal justice reform and the risk posed by proposed reforms


The UK government has called for a rehabilitation revolution in England and Wales and put its faith in market testing.

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Wealth of Our Nation: Rethinking Policies for Wealth Distribution


This paper explores the implications for public policy from the new Office of National Statistics (ONS) data source on wealth distribution in Britain, and what we know about future trends in savings, longevity, property prices and inheritance.

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ICCJ Monograph No 9: Justice, with Reason: Rethinking the Economics of Crime and Justice


Economic ideas and concepts have always influenced thinking about crime and criminal justice. Increasingly, however, criminologists, policy-makers and practitioners who draw on, or seek to critique, economic ideas take a rather narrow view of economics based on the prevailing orthodoxy: neo-liberalism. Neo-liberalism, vulgarly conceived, assumes society is comprised of self-serving, instrumentally rational actors.

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PERU Briefing 14/02: Social Innovation in the Criminal Justice System


In this briefing we highlight the importance of social innovation in the criminal justice system and ask whether reforms to the criminal justice system taking place as part of the Transforming Rehabilitation policy shift will encourage or deter social innovation in the future.

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Personalisation in the criminal justice system: what is the potential?


The criminal justice sector has never achieved rates of re-offending with which the public and policy makers are satisfied.

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Justice Reinvestment in an “Age of Austerity”: Developments in the United Kingdom


In the UK, national and local governments are struggling to cope with the economic crisis which ensued in 2008.

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PERU Briefing 13/01 : Justice Reinvestment Thinking outside the cell


In Crime and Punishment in America, Currie notes that, short of major wars, mass imprisonment has been the most thoroughly implemented USA government social programme of recent times.

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Could Personalisation Reduce Reoffending?


Rising prison numbers and high rates of re-offending illustrate the need for criminal justice reform.

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Justice Reinvestment: Can it Deliver More for Less?


Recent years have seen high levels of public spending on criminal justice but to relatively little effect

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Crime and Economics: An Introduction


Crime and Economics provides the first comprehensive and accessible text to address the economics of crime within the study of crime and criminology.

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Estimating the costs and benefits of an alcohol treatment requirement


Purpose – This paper seeks to report on a project to estimate the costs and benefits of implementing an Alcohol Treatment Requirement (ATR) in Stockport.

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