Background

The Health Foundation REAL Centre is working with the University of Liverpool to build a dynamic microsimulation model of non-communicable diseases to allow analysis of future demand for healthcare. This project is highly challenging as the model will need to simulate the ‘health future’ of every member of a population sample, including the incidence and severity of diseases and the presence of multiple conditions. In doing so, it will need to take into account the demographic, societal and economic factors which influence individual outcomes.

At the heart of the exercise is the desire to test the impact of policy interventions and demographic or societal change on future demand for healthcare. So the model needs to be capable of addressing the areas likely to be of greatest policy interest over the next decade. It also needs to have the flexibility to be developed as new data and insights into diseases and health care emerge.
Because of this complexity, dynamic microsimulation models are very expensive to build so they are most commonly built by governments. There is therefore a relatively limited academic literature in the field and so being able to draw upon the experience is particularly valuable.

Professor Ashwin Kumar has more than a decade of experience in microsimulation modelling. He was the team leader responsible for building Pensim2, the Department for Work and Pensions’ world-leading model to estimate future pensioner incomes, which was first used by the Pensions Commission in 2005 and is the mainstay of pensions policy making at the department.

As Head of Model Development at the DWP, he developed new IT infrastructure for building models of this type, new project management frameworks for complex modelling projects, led the econometric research to populate the model, and briefed ministers on long-term projections produced by the model.

As a Senior Civil Servant, advisor to Gordon Brown and Chief Economist at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, he has significant experience of the policy and political landscape that the model’s results will be used to influence.

Outcomes

Provide expert advice to support the Health Foundation project to build a dynamic microsimulation model of non-communicable diseases and healthcare demand

Relevant Links

https://www.health.org.uk/what-we-do/real-centre/health-care-activity-and-demand-model