PERU’s work within incomes, work and poverty is concentrated on policy simulation modelling and quantitative data analysis on incomes, poverty and the labour market.

PERU maintains and develops the Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR) Tax-Benefit Model, which simulates the effects of the UK taxes and benefits on a sample of the population. The Model provides estimates of the effect of policy on government expenditure on the distribution of income and on levels of poverty. It also facilitates ‘nowcasting’ – predicting the distribution of income over the next few years – and policy simulation – estimating the effects of proposed changes to the tax and benefit system. The Model is used by partner organisations and by PERU as part of a range of research projects.

Partner organisations using the model include: the IPPR; the Resolution Foundation; the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF); the New Economics Foundation; the Legatum Institute. The New Economic Foundation use the model for their analysis of Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Minimum Income Guarantee (MIG) approaches to social security. The Legatum Institute also use the Model in their analysis of poverty projections.

PERU has used the model on projects including:

PERU holds a continued interest in low paid work and in-work poverty, with the book Idleness being released in October 2022. Currently, workstreams include projects focusing on local housing allowances and work incentives in the tax and benefit system. PERU is also providing advice to the Health Foundation on building a dynamic microsimulation model of health demand, and is involved in the Good Employment Learning Event (led by the business school at MMU).

Meeting Scotland’s child poverty reduction targets

This project looks at the relative effectiveness of childcare, employability programmes and social security levers in achieving the child poverty reduction targets

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Housing costs and child poverty

This project utilise the IPPR tax-benefit model to model the effects, at a household level, of changes to housing policy, accounting for the complexities in the benefit system.

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Exploring the frontiers of microsimulation

Tax-benefit microsimulation modelling is a well-established technique used in many countries around the world for estimating the fiscal, distributional and poverty effects of policy change in the tax and benefit system

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Providing advice on building a dynamic microsimulation modelling for non-communicable diseases

The Health Foundation REAL Centre is working with the University of Liverpool to build a dynamic microsimulation model of non-communicable diseases to allow analysis of future demand for healthcare.

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Assessing the impact on poverty of changes to the Local Housing Allowance

This will provide the first definitive view of the impact that the changes to the Local Housing Allowance over the past decade have had on poverty

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Work incentives in the tax and benefit system

This project will identify where, and why, work incentives remain poor for so many people by conducting a comprehensive study of work incentives throughout the tax and benefit system

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Doing Gig Work – Illustrated Material Published

Publication aims to raise awareness about the platform-based gig economy

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Policy failure or f***up: homelessness and welfare reform in England

Homelessness and welfare reform in England

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In-work progression

Response to Department for Work and Pensions call for evidence and good practice on in-work progression.

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Modelling the Economic Impact of a Citizen’s Basic Income in Scotland

A report, co-authored by researchers from the Fraser of Allander Institute, Manchester Metropolitan University and IPPR Scotland, looks at the costs and benefits of implementing a basic income in Scotland and the channels through which it may impact upon the economy.

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How Could Brexit Affect Poverty in the UK?

This briefing analyses Brexit’s potential impact on families in poverty, along with other forces that could help or hinder efforts to solve UK poverty.

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Globalisation and sticky prices: ‘con’ or conundrum

With reference to a case study which illustrates the existence of segmented markets and international price discrimination, this paper develops a theoretical model of comparative advantage in which domestic prices may be sticky.

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