HM Inspectorate of Probation has published new research examining how well caseloads and workloads in probation have been managed in recent years, and the impact that large caseloads can have on the quality of supervision.

The Research & Analysis Bulletin ‘Caseloads, workloads and staffing levels in probation services’ demonstrates how the quality of probation delivery falls when practitioners are responsible for managing more than 50 cases.

As part of the research underpinning the report PERU undertook a Rapid Evidence Assessment to identify and synthesise trustworthy evidence about the effect of probation caseloads on reducing recidivism, as well as the impact caseloads have on a range of ‘intermediate outcomes’ such as improving engagement, improving completions, reducing breaches and staff absence. Robust evidence on probation caseloads was limited and only 5 studies met all the criteria set out in the Review. They were all US studies and compared outcomes to a comparator group. Outcomes measured included lower rearrest rates, lower probation violation rates and a lower number of average jail days. We concluded that there is some evidence from methodologically robust studies that lower probation caseloads can reduce recidivism, although more research needed.