The evaluation uses recorded crime, incident and nominal data made available under licence by Police Scotland and Greater Manchester Police. These data were used to generate various alcohol-related, non-alcohol-related and drug-related crime, disorder and public nuisance output measures, at a variety of geographical and temporal scales. These data were also used to identify the age and sex of victim and offender populations. The evaluation deployed a range of statistical methods, including change point detection analysis, uncontrolled interrupted time series analysis (regression with ARIMA errors), Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) and a synthetic control.

The study found that the long-term decline in all recorded crime and disorder in Scotland had ceased prior to the introduction of MUP. The trend in all recorded crime and disorder was shaped by the volume of all non-alcohol-related crime, which underwent a statistically significant increase prior to the introduction of MUP. In contrast, all alcohol-related crime and disorder exhibited a steady and declining trend prior to and following the introduction of MUP. No significant change in trend direction or level was found for all alcohol-related crime and disorder, all alcohol-related incidents (public nuisance) or all drug-related crimes.