Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore what impact the recent economic recession and ongoing economic difficulties experienced in the UK might have on crime in Greater Manchester.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, we summarise existing literature on the relationship between crime trends and economic trends. Then, drawing on data on crime, the economy and other relevant socio-demographic trends in Greater Manchester some broad conclusions are drawn about likely crime trends in Greater Manchester over the coming years.

Findings

The paper concludes that recent reductions in crime might not be sustained, with crime rates in Manchester City’s most vulnerable council area levelling out or even rising. This is particularly likely of the rate of violent crime.

Research limitations/implications

This work is part of an ongoing project based at Manchester Metropolitan University to predict future crime trends in Greater Manchester.

Originality/value

This paper will be of value to police forces and local authorities, principally when conducting their strategic assessments.

Keywords

Crimes, Forecast, Economy, Greater Manchester, Recession, United Kingdom

Paper type

Research paper

Publication link

https://emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?issn=1757-8043&volume=10&issue=3&articleid=1947729&show=abstract

Chris Fox, Kevin Albertson, Mark Ellison, Tom Martin, (2011) “How will the recession affect crime rates in Greater Manchester?”, Safer Communities, Vol. 10 Iss: 3, pp.17 – 30