‘What Works’ initiatives have led to fears that the role of probation officers will be reduced to that of competent functionaries rather than skilled experts in criminal justice social work. A quantitative pattern analysis of four key variables among 3286 male Swedish probationers showed that worse contact than planned and a prior criminal record are associated with reconviction more often than expected. Worse contact could be a marker of potential reconviction during probation, indicating a need for immediate response. Probation may ‘work’ better when manual-based programmes and the