This article aims to do two things. First, to identify which elements of the Criminal Justice Bill (2002) seem likely significantly to affect the role and workload of the National Probation Service (NPS) in the short to medium term. Secondly, to identify what other policy initiatives might also exert an influence, and to what extent. The exercise will necessarily involve a good deal of speculation: predicting the future is partly a matter of modelling and projection, but mostly a question of political choice. We will indicate the options we think should ideally be chosen.